SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290559
TXZ000-290800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX...RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 290559Z - 290800Z
CLUSTER OF MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR TSTMS -- PERHAPS INCLUDING SOME
INTERMITTENT/LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLULAR MORPHOLOGY -- SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE NWD/NNWWD FROM NERN COAHUILA ACROSS RIO GRANDE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS NWRN WEBB...DIMMIT...MAVERICK AND
ZAVALA COUNTIES THROUGH 830Z. LARGE HAIL WILL BE MAIN THREAT...WITH
ISOLATED STG GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE
OF LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THREAT.
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM NRN SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO RANGE IN MEX...EWD ACROSS DRT AREA...THEN EWD THROUGH NRN
FRINGES SAT/HOU AREAS. THIS FRONT MAY DRIFT NWD...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MARK NRN EDGE OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS. MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF GRADUAL SFC DIABATIC COOLING...THIS BUOYANCY
BEING SUPPORTED GREATLY BY UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS. SFC THETAE
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP MARKEDLY N OF FRONT...LEADING TO MORE ELEVATED
UPDRAFTS AND LIKELY WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY FROM LATITUDE OF ABOUT
DRT-HDO NWD. ONGOING ACTIVITY IS MOVING LEFTWARD OF THAT PORTION OF
HODOGRAPH ABOVE 2 KM...HOWEVER DRT VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONSIDERABLE TURNING IN LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT YIELD CURVING 0-2 KM
HODOGRAPHS...AND POSITIVE SRH EVEN FOR LEFT-MOVING STORMS.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING W OF MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY
AS OF 545Z...AND THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
KINNEY/SRN VAL VERDE COUNTIES.
.EDWARDS.. 04/29/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
29430103 29600066 29620026 29529991 29289977 28699970
28259979 27989993 27990000 28140007 28190019 28260028
28480035 28730053 28900065 29070067 29150078 29250078
29280088 29370100
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