SWODY1
SPC AC 060051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS DEEPENING WRN CONUS
TROUGH...ANCHORED BY CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER WRN NV. SEVERAL WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ARE EJECTING
NEWD...WITHIN BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM. THESE ARE EVIDENT
OVER NRN LS...SRN PORTIONS MN/WI...SD AND PERHAPS LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY INVOF CA/AZ BORDER. AT SFC...WAVY FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED
FROM COMPLEX LOW OVER WY...SEWD OVER NEB SANDHILLS...NEWD THROUGH
WEAK LOW BETWEEN MHE-PIR...ENEWD THEN EWD OVER S-CENTRAL MN AND
NWRN/N-CENTRAL WI. MOST OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS
SD/MN OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT...WHILE WY LOW IS PROGGED TO
CONSOLIDATE E OF BIGHORNS AS LEE-SIDE CYCLONE.
..UPPER MS RIVER REGION...
SFC BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE UNLIKELY WITH TIME
GIVEN ONSET OF SFC COOLING...AND STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN
COMBINATION OF 00Z MPX RAOB...LAST FEW HOURS WORTH OF ACARS
SOUNDINGS...AND CURRENT/NOWCAST RUC SOUNDINGS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER S
OF FRONT DECOUPLES...AND LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVER
WY...ASSOCIATED ADJUSTMENT OF LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN
REFOCUS/STRENGTHENING OF WAA REGIME ACROSS MN...WITH 40-50 KT SWLY
LLJ POSSIBLE. DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF SFC WARM FRONT...AS MOIST PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY ASCEND TO LFC.
SUBTLE SUPPORT ALOFT ALSO MAY COME FROM MESOSCALE AREA OF MIDLEVEL
ASCENT AHEAD OF SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ELEVATED MUCAPES SHOULD RANGE
FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OVER NRN MN TO AROUND 2500 J/KG ABOVE SFC
FRONT. EFFECTIVE SHEARS 40-50 KT INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO ORGANIZE WITH ISOLATED SVR HAIL POSSIBLE.
.EDWARDS.. 10/06/2007
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