MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0838

ACUS11 KWNS 212053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212053
TXZ000-212200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316...

VALID 212053Z - 212200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316
CONTINUES.

TSTM CELLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG DRYLINE IN PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX. SPLITTING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS HAVE BEEN
NOTED IN RADAR TRENDS WHICH WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF
3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE KFWS VAD
WIND PROFILE WITH MODEST 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15 KT. THIS SHOULD HELP
LIMIT A MORE ROBUST TORNADO THREAT...BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE REMAINS RATHER MODEST WITH SWRN EXTENT
AS TOWERING CU FIELD APPEARS LESS AGITATED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AS SUCH...NEAR-TERM TSTM INITIATION MAY PROVE DIFFICULT S
OF A JCT LATITUDE.

..GRAMS.. 05/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31019872 32519784 32939766 33179705 33039654 32569658
31669711 30569794 30249847 30259880 30349900 30539910
31019872

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