DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090549
SWODY1
SPC AC 090547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
MID MO VALLEY TODAY AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS. A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
OH VALLEY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ABOUT 100 STATUTE
MILES OFFSHORE FROM THE NRN CA COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM
EUREKA SWD TOWARD THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA AS THE COLD POCKET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

..BROYLES/COHEN.. 10/09/2012

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