DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091703
SWODY2
SPC AC 091702

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR SUSTAINED
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING DAY2 PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL NOT PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG SFC BOUNDARY THAT INITIALLY
SURGES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THEN RETREATS NWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE IN PART
TO UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR INCREASING LLJ
NEAR/AFTER DARK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHED ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF FAR WEST TX AND
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE WITHIN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO PORTIONS OF SERN NM. VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WOULD
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS. HAIL COULD ALSO
DEVELOP WITHIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN THE MOISTENING PROFILES
ACROSS THIS REGION.

DOWNSTREAM...WEAK WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF RETREATING BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FROM
ERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
SUGGEST HAIL COULD EVOLVE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT IT/S NOT CLEAR IF
SUFFICIENT ASCENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION TO JUSTIFY
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY FOR SEVERE PROBS. FOR THIS REASON
HAVE OPTED TO LOWER SEVERE PROBS.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...

STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH NRN BAJA INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. FOCUSED ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN CA TOWARD FAR
WESTERN AZ BY 11/12Z AND THIS MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LATEST DATA SUGGEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
BE INADEQUATE TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS WITH THIS FRONTAL CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 10/09/2012

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