ACUS11 KWNS 092159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092159
FLZ000-092330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 092159Z - 092330Z
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SWRN FL PENINSULA MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES TO 2 IN/HR THROUGH AROUND 23Z.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST-COAST
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SRN
COLLIER COUNTY SWD INTO MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AND INTO FAR SWRN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. MIAMI VWP DATA DEPICT WEAK MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE
CLOUD LAYER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT QUASI-STATIONARY
CONVECTION. AND...AS THE EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTS
WITH THIS CONVECTION WHILE MOVING WNWWD AROUND 10 KNOTS...SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AMIDST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A WARM-CLOUD LAYER AROUND
4-4.5 KM DEEP...RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...AND A DEEP/NARROW CAPE
PROFILE PER MODIFIED KEY WEST AND MIAMI 12Z RAOBS. AND...WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 2-2.15 INCHES PER GPS PW DATA...RAINFALL RATES TO 2
IN/HR MAY OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
PRECIPITATION LOADING PROCESSES MAY ALSO SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS
WITH OCCASIONALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..COHEN.. 10/09/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...
LAT...LON 26128106 26118106 25808090 25608090 25278079 25218090
25308100 25438111 25638124 25768133 25908154 25988157
26118149 26128106
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