DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171730
SWODY2
SPC AC 171728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE U.S.
THOUGH THE PERIOD...AS A LARGE/EWD-MOVING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SEWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL
AIR SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SERN U.S. -- LEAVING
SEASONABLY COLD CONTINENTAL AIR TO COVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE COUNTRY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL AND S TX VICINITY...
SOME RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE INTO TX AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF TX.
ALONG WITH MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO EVOLVE TO THE N OF THE ANAFRONTAL-TYPE BOUNDARY.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES SSEWD WITH TIME AND THE LAGGING UPPER SYSTEM
BEGINS SHIFTING INTO THE SRN PLAINS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP -- MOST LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WHILE SHEAR -- AIDED BY 40-PLUS KT
MID-LEVEL WSWLYS -- WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
PRIMARILY ELEVATED/POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK. STILL...WILL MAINTAIN LOW /5%/ SEVERE RISK FOR
MARGINAL HAIL...AS WELL AS A WIND GUST OR TWO WITH ANY STORM WHICH
CAN BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR OR S OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.

..GOSS.. 10/17/2013

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