DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170529
SWODY2
SPC AC 170528

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL U.S.
FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY
AREA ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH
OK AND TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH S AND SERN TX.

...CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX...

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWWD THROUGH TX AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO AROUND 60 ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
NEAR 70 ALONG THE SRN THROUGH SERN COASTS. STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SPREAD INTO WRN TX WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX WHERE THE ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAP WRN EDGE OF MOIST AXIS AND WHERE
STRONGER DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.

WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH...BUT LOW LEVEL RESPONSE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH MODEST FLOW
FORECAST IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL APPROACH 40-50 KT IN WARM SECTOR. STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SWRN THROUGH CNTRL TX FRIDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS
WITH RETURNING MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM SCNTRL THROUGH SERN TX
OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS...AND A LOW END SEVERE RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE PRIMARILY TO
THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 10/17/2013

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