ACUS01 KWNS 170528
SWODY1
SPC AC 170525
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY FRI.
A SERIES OF UPSTREAM IMPULSES WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SURFACE...THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL AID IN THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATING EWD OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH TRAILING PORTION LINGERING INTO THE N-CNTRL
GULF.
...NRN APPALACHIANS...
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WITH NRN EXTENT IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR...MUCAPE REMAINING AOB 250 K/KG. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE FRONT THU
EVENING...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD YIELD A
LOW-TOPPED/SHORT LINE-SEGMENT IN PARTS OF PA/NY. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
NEGLIGIBLE. BUT GIVEN THE POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED
SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT FOR EVEN CHARGE SEPARATION...WILL REFRAIN FROM
INTRODUCING DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.
...SRN PLAINS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME SHOULD YIELD SHOWERS AND A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS IS
DRAWN NWD. DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE PRONOUNCED...BUT LIKELY
MEAGER BUOYANCY SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL.
..GRAMS/COHEN.. 10/17/2013
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