DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171252
SWODY1
SPC AC 171249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL U.S....DOWNSTREAM FROM
AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. RELATIVELY FAST SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE ERN STATES AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER IL CONTINUES ENE ACROSS
THE OH VLY...THE LWR GRT LKS...AND NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRI. AT THE
SAME TIME...A SERIES OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES WILL DROP S/SE ACROSS
THE RCKYS...MAINTAINING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PLNS.

AT THE SFC...THE IL IMPULSE WILL INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER PA
LATER TODAY...AND COLD FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID
ATLANTIC. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST BY LATE
TNGT...WHILE THE TRAILING SRN PORTION BECOMES QSTNRY OVER THE
N-CNTRL/NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AND PARTS OF TX.

...CNTRL/NRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN/EVE...
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION N AND E OF DEVELOPING SFC WAVE OVER WV/PA
LATER TODAY...KEEPING MUCAPE AOB 250 K/KG. NEVERTHELESS...FAIRLY
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED 70 KT MID-LVL JET STREAK. GIVEN
AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S F...SETUP COULD YIELD A
SMALL BROKEN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS/STORMS IN CNTRL PA...AND
PERHAPS ADJACENT PARTS OF MD/WV/NRN VA. IF SUCH A LINE WERE TO
FORM...STRENGTH OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /700 MB SPEEDS AOA 40 KTS/
SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR GUSTS MAY OCCUR. GIVEN
THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND ONSET OF NIGHTFALL...ANY
SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME.

...SRN PLNS TNGT...
STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE MAY YIELD SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD
OVER NW TX AND WRN OK AS PARTLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS SPREADS NWD.
DEEP SHEAR WILL BE APPRECIABLE...BUT LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY RISK FOR SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/17/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.