DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170743
SWOD48
SPC AC 170742

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS AS WELL AS MOST MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
PERSIST DURING THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH A MEAN SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REGIME WILL FOSTER SEVERAL INTRUSIONS
OF CP SFC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE U.S. WITH MOSTLY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE GULF AND STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL ON DAY 6 WHEN
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS NRN FL IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD POSE AT
LEAST A MARGINAL/MODEST SEVERE THREAT...BUT OVERALL RISK IN THIS
REGION DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY AREA AT
THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 10/17/2013

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