MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2015

ACUS11 KWNS 011921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011920
NCZ000-SCZ000-012045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC/FAR SERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011920Z - 012045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NERN SC/SERN NC NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
HOWEVER DUE TO GEOGRAPHICALLY LIMITED THREAT AREA.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NERN SC AND ADJACENT AREAS JUST OFFSHORE...ALONG A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE SURFACE REMAINS MODEST IN THIS
REGION...BACKED/ELY SURFACE WINDS N OF THE WARM FRONT ARE PROVIDING
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- SUPPORTIVE OF
UPDRAFT ROTATION. THOUGH THE MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT NWD POTENTIAL OF ANY TORNADO
THREAT...A NARROW ZONE OF HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL EXISTS IMMEDIATELY N
OF THE FRONT. IN THIS ZONE...RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A
PERSISTENT/ROTATING CELL OVER HORRY COUNTY SC...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A
TORNADO IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. ADDITIONAL BRIEF TORNADIC ACTIVITY
REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS IT SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE NC
BORDER.

MEANWHILE...THOUGH ANOTHER CELL OR TWO MAY EVOLVE AND ACQUIRE
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN THIS SAME SMALL ZONE OF FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND CONDITIONS...OVERALL THREAT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED IN BOTH DEGREE AND COVERAGE SUGGESTS THAT WW ISSUANCE WILL
LIKELY NOT BECOME NECESSARY.

..GOSS/HART.. 10/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 34417717 33527794 33367919 33138037 33578094 34158004
34517867 34417717

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