DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011608
SWODY1
SPC AC 011606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/TN AND
THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AR THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW
ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE. AN OVERALL SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND AWAY FROM
THE BETTER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO.

...NC...
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE THE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NC. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
AIR MASS RECOVERY THAT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/STRONG STORMS
DESPITE VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 10/01/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.