ACUS11 KWNS 011052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011051
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-011245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011051Z - 011245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SITUATION FOR BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES EXISTS BUT
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN AL NWD TO A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM NERN AL INTO NWRN GA. INSTABILITY REMAINS
WEAK WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
ARE HELPING TO MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY.
VWPS INDICATE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATION STORMS. RECENT
RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN BRIEF AREAS OF WEAK ROTATION AT TIMES...BUT
OBSERVED VELOCITIES HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE AMBIENT
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES SLOWLY EWD. SMALL AMOUNTS OF HEATING FROM
SWRN GA INTO NRN FL WHICH MAY AID STORMS LATER THIS MORNING.
..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 10/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...
LAT...LON 30158701 31078678 32148660 32798656 33258667 33648698
33968692 33988618 33898547 33618493 33258460 32768464
31688484 30808502 30178516 29908539 29938570 30248617
30298661 30158701
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