MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2014

ACUS11 KWNS 011753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011752
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-011845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AL...WRN GA...ERN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011752Z - 011845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM W-CNTRL GA THROUGH EXTREME SE AL
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE HAS INCREASED IN STRENGTH OVER THE LAST HOUR.
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF A
FEW WEAK/BRIEF TORNADOES OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND WEST...THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE SOON. BOTH AREAS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TORNADO WATCH.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. KEOX /FORT RUCKER/ AND KTLH RADARS HAVE SHOWN
SEVERAL TRANSIENT/WEAK CIRCULATIONS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
FAR SE AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SW GA. BACKED SFC FLOW WITH
FAVORABLE VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES WITH 0-1KM SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2
PER REGIONAL 88-D VWP/S WOULD INDICATE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF LINE OF CURRENT CONVECTION. WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW WEAK/BRIEF TORNADOES OR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT MAY EXTEND TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
AL/NW GA CLOSER TO EWD PROGRESSING SFC LOW AND W-E ORIENTED WARM
FRONT. WHILE TEMPERATURES HERE REMAIN COOLER /LOW TO MID 70S/ DUE TO
EARLIER STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS HAVE LEAD TO
WEAK DESTABILIZATION IN MOIST AIRMASS. BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 10/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 31098551 32278542 32688565 32978626 33288702 33808705
34198683 34418609 34468519 34158413 33538342 32678332
31958322 31248326 31058329 30238351 29818403 29488470
29648529 30078569 31098551

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