DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 051721
SWODY2
SPC AC 051720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...LONGWAVE TROUGH/BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL BE
PREVALENT SATURDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/GULF COAST REGION/SOUTH TX.

...ARKLATEX/GULF COAST REGION TO CAROLINAS/FL...
WELL NORTH OF THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT...SOME ELEVATED TSTMS MAY
INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SUCH AS EASTERN
OK/ARKLATEX. SEVERE HAIL IS UNLIKELY WITHIN A MARGINAL ELEVATED
BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT. WARM SECTOR TSTM POTENTIAL IS EVEN MORE
SUSPECT /VIRTUALLY NIL/ NEAR THE SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS
THE GULF COAST REGION/SOUTH TX.

FARTHER EAST...NEAR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SUCH AS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/VA...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD CONSIDERABLY
CURB STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL...WITH SEVERE TSTMS NOT
EXPECTED. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA WITH THE AID OF A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS...ALTHOUGH SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT/MARGINAL BUOYANCY.

..GUYER.. 10/05/2012

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