DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050437
SWODY1
SPC AC 050435

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CNTRL/ERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AN EXTENSIVE SFC FRONT -- LYING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD -- WILL PROGRESS
EWD/SWD AND STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO SW TX BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

...FAR NERN TX...SERN OK...CNTRL/NRN/WRN AR...S-CNTRL/SERN MO...
POST-SFC-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING A RESIDUAL
EML SHOULD BOOST ELEVATED INSTABILITY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONALLY SUSTAINED...ELEVATED
STORMS WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AMIDST
GENERALLY 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INVOF THE SFC FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED PRE-FRONTAL CINH.
STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY
BEFORE IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING FRONT.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 10/05/2012

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