SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180740
LAZ000-TXZ000-180945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 180740Z - 180945Z
HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND INTO WRN
LA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...A FEW
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE POTENTIAL IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.
MATURE MCS CONTINUES TO AFFECT POTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX AND THE UPPER
TX COAST EARLY TODAY. SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED WITHIN A FOCUSED
ZONE OF SLOPED ASCENT SUPPORTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER
LEVEL WAVE AND INFLUX OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLD POOL/OUTFLOW
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MESOSCALE INTENSIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM GALVESTON BAY WWD ACROSS HARRIS...FORT BEND...
BRAZORIA...AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES. STRONGEST ASCENT AND DEEP
CONVECTION HAS SO FAR REMAINED GENERALLY DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL RATES TO 2
INCHES AN HOUR POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN
RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED WARM SECTOR OVER WHARTON COUNTY. IF THIS
ACTIVITY CAN REMAIN DISCRETE AND TRACK EWD/NEWD ALONG OR ACROSS THE
FRONT...INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THIS AREA COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION AS SEEN EARLIER ACROSS NORTHWEST HARRIS
COUNTY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RUC AND WRF-NMM INDICATE EFFECTIVE
SRH IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2 FOR CELLS TRACKING NEAR ALONG THE
FRONT/BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AREAL COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF TORNADO/WIND HAZARD CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO
SUPPORT A WATCH. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CHARACTER ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
.CARBIN.. 11/18/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
29399478 28669573 29069602 29459583 30219460 30249371
29729381
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