Sunday, November 18, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181257
SWODY1
SPC AC 181255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...WITH
MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT FARTHER N THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL STATES. SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVER E TX
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR E IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE GULF CST
REGION...WHILE COMPLEX NRN STREAM TROUGH REACHES WRN WA/ORE.

..SE TX INTO LA...
CONVECTION WITHIN ONGOING MCS OVER SE TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DIMINISHES WITH CONTINUED
EWD MOTION OF E TX UPR TROUGH. INFLOW OF INCREASINGLY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN SOME REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER ATOP SYSTEM COLD POOL OVER THE NWRN GULF
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SE TX/SRN LA THROUGH THE DAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. BUT WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DEEP SHEAR NEAR
UPR TROUGH AXIS SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH TONIGHT.

..WRN WA...
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN
MEMBER OF COMPLEX TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE TIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY...LIMITING THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
PERIOD OVER CSTL WA.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/18/2007

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