SWOD48
SPC AC 180941
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
..DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE EVIDENT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD -- AND THAT A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP SEWD ACROSS
THE CONUS LEAVING A COLD/DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...THE
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS.
THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT ON DAY 4 /WED.
NOV. 21/...WHICH DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
MID OH VALLEY STATES. THIS RESULTS IN A LARGE -- ALBEIT GENERALLY
STABLE -- WARM SECTOR DAYS 4-5 E OF THE MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS NO WAVE...SIMPLY DRIVING A COLD FRONT STEADILY SEWD
ACROSS THE CONUS.
WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST FROM E TX DAY 4 ACROSS THE GULF
COAST THROUGH DAY 6...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THE OVERALL DEGREE OF
THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF AN AREA -- PARTICULARLY
CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES.
BEYOND DAY 6...INCREASINGLY EXTREME MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE ANY
ATTEMPT AT DISCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT.
.GOSS.. 11/18/2007
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