SWODY1
SPC AC 181545
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY
TODAY. SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT ANY OTHER AREAS OF CONVECTION.
..SOUTH TX INTO SRN LA...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
STEADILY SWD THROUGH SOUTH TX INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A
SUBSIDENCE LAYER IS NOTED ON THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING AT MID
LEVELS...SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
SCT NEAR SURFACE BASED TSTM RE-DEVELOPMENT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS. HOWEVER...GRADUALLY WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/SUBSIDENCE
AND WEAKENING WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PRECLUDE SVR POTENTIAL WITH ANY TSTMS THAT REDEVELOP.
FURTHER EAST...DESPITE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER
THE NRN GULF...GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND POOR
LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ANY SVR
TSTM POTENTIAL OVER SWRN/SCENTRAL LA.
.CROSBIE/HALES.. 11/18/2007
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