DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121700
SWODY2
SPC AC 121658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CONUS...

DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK SRN STREAM OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME. LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
ESEWD INTO NRN NM AND THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC FRONT TO ELONGATE ITSELF
FROM SRN MO...SWWD INTO TX WHERE SHALLOW NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
DRIVE THE WIND SHIFT TO NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER OF THE BIG BEND
REGION BY 13/18Z. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED WITHIN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND THESE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE WEAKLY SHEARED AND MODESTLY BUOYANT. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE REMOVED 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS AS THE THREAT OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS MARGINAL.

WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WILL EXTEND
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND TOO WEAKLY
SHEARED/FORCED TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE.

..DARROW.. 09/12/2012

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