ACUS01 KWNS 121626
SWODY1
SPC AC 121624
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S-CNTRL KS SSWWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD/SSEWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS TODAY...EXTENDING FROM THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN OK TO SERN NM BY
LATE TONIGHT. FRONTAL ASCENT...LOCALLY AUGMENTED BY THE BAROCLINIC
CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING A N/S DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SFC-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE FRONT. THE INFLUX OF ONLY PARTIALLY
MODIFIED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH AN EML/DRY PROFILES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER 12Z RAOBS. AND...WITH SFC
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AOA 30F...ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WITH
VERY SPORADIC SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDLESS...THE
DURATION OF ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE CURTAILED BY THE UNDERCUTTING
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY
GREATER...THOUGH THE ANTICIPATED ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER OF THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE SVR THREAT.
...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND SWRN/S-CNTRL LA...
RELATIVELY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUCCEEDING A NWD-ADVANCING
MARINE SFC BOUNDARY CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MIDDLE-70S DEWPOINTS WILL
LIE BENEATH DRIER AIR ALOFT W OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG
AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVELY-AUGMENTED SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DCAPE OF 1000-1300 J/KG PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT...SHOULD AID IN
SPORADIC SVR WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS THAT REGENERATE
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SEA BREEZE.
..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/12/2012
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