DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120731
SWODY3
SPC AC 120730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

COMPACT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION...REACHING THE NERN U.S. BY 12Z SATURDAY.
SEVERAL SRN STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES. AT THE
SFC A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EWD AND SEWD...LIKELY REACHING THE NERN U.S.
SWWD INTO SRN TX BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

...SERN TX...

WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS SE TX.
HOWEVER...WHERE DIABATIC WARMING DOES OCCUR MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000
J/KG MAY DEVELOP GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. VORTICITY
MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES AREA...

THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ATTENDING THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED ALONG NERN EXTENSION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. BANDS OF SHALLOW...LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

..DIAL.. 09/12/2012

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