DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 120810
SWOD48
SPC AC 120810

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 5 AS RICHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF BELT OF STRONGER WLYS OVER
THE NRN TIER STATES.

DAY 6-8...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
DETAILS SUCH AS DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION...TIMING AND HANDLING
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LOWER OVERALL PREDICTABILITY. PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR MAY BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR OVER THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS MONDAY /DAY 6/...AND AT LEAST
SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH...CONTINUING INTO THE NERN STATES DAY 7. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE 6-8 PERIOD REMAINS
LOW DUE TO DISPERSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

..DIAL.. 09/12/2012

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