SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181752
FLZ000-182015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181752Z - 182015Z
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS IN THREE PRIMARY
AREAS LISTED BELOW...WITH MOST INTENSE CELLS POSING RISK OF HAIL OR
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. THREAT ATTM APPEARS TOO MRGL/SHORT-LIVED FOR
WW.
SFC MESOANALYSIS -- INCLUDING SUPPLEMENTAL NON/ASOS DATA --
INDICATES DIFFUSE COLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR DAB-OCF...THEN SSWWD
INTO WEAK MESOLOW OVER TBW REGION. BULK OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...WHICH IS FCST TO CONTINUE
DRIFTING SWD THROUGH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. S OF
FRONT...SUBSTANTIAL HEATING/MIXING ALREADY IS UNDERWAY...DROPPING
SFC DEW POINTS INTO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S F WELL INLAND FROM LOWER
KISSIMMEE VALLEY SWD TOWARD NRN/ERN COLLIER COUNTY. MORE FAVORABLE
MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DEW POINTS WILL SURROUND INLAND
MIXING ZONE...SUPPORTING MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG AND ALSO COLLOCATE
WITH APPARENT CONVERGENCE MAXIMA. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES THESE
PRINCIPAL FOCI...
1. N-CENTRAL FL FRONTAL/SEA BREEZE BLEND FROM MARION/LAKE COUNTIES
ESEWD TOWARD ERN ORANGE/SEMINOLE COUNTIES
2. HERNANDO-CHARLOTTE COUNTIES INVOF W COAST SEA BREEZE AND MESOLOW
3. PURE SEA BREEZE ALONG SE COAST BETWEEN VRB-HST...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO COASTLINE GIVEN AMBIENT DEEP-LAYER WLYS.
VWP AND RUC WIND PROFILES INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR BUT STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FLOW -- BENEATH SUBTROPICAL JET -- RESULTING IN
POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE VENTING OF CONVECTIVE PLUMES ALOFT AND
ENHANCED MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. FURTHER LOCALIZED
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ALONG BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS.
.EDWARDS.. 05/18/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
26838002 26408002 25948007 25708014 25408024 25278044
25258063 25508049 25738043 26348030 27058041 27728089
26918106 26698099 26118092 25938128 25948163 26888190
27388221 27778234 28248237 28728212 29068179 29088149
28958115 28518076 27968048
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