SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182320
MNZ000-190045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 182320Z - 190045Z
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 279 THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
PENNINGTON AND RED LAKE COUNTIES IN NWRN MN...PERHAPS AS INITIALLY
ELEVATED...WEAKER CONVECTION FINALLY BECAME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER
AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT
THIS STORM IS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL ND INTO N-CNTRL SD WHERE
MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THAT THIS STORM IS
MOVING SEWD AWAY FROM THIS STRONGER INSTABILITY...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS STORM WILL MAINTAIN IT/S INTENSITY.
REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER NETWORK AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ATTENDANT TO 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL BE
MAINTAINED AT LEAST THROUGH 19/06Z OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHICH
COULD SUPPORT SOME EWD DEVELOPMENT TO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS WITH
TIME. THIS COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /30-35 KT
PER GRAND FORKS VWP/ INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TO DEVELOP E OF CURRENT WW THIS EVENING.
.MEAD.. 05/18/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
48349555 48639501 48619422 48369344 47589333 46759384
46309453 46119506 46139538 46439598
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