SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182108
WYZ000-MTZ000-182345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN MONTANA...FAR NRN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182108Z - 182345Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND POSSIBLE.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY DUE TO HEATING AND
PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OF
LOW MAGNITUDE. IN ADDITION TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
AREA OF FAR SWRN MT...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE STORM FORMATION WILL
BE ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT ACROSS CNTRL MT JUST S OF
A GTF TO LWT LINE. HERE..NELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS INCREASING LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S. THUS...GIVEN
CONTINUED HEATING...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE CAPPING FARTHER E...SO STORMS
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP
SHEAR...THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD REMAIN LONG ENOUGH LIVED TO
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY MOVE IN AN
EWD...AND EVENTUALLY SEWD DIRECTION.
.JEWELL.. 05/18/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...
45041090 45021117 45141177 45601226 46051242 46431198
47221161 47311038 47320897 47030837 46570801 45460710
44870638 44580668 44560748 44760827 45030920 45041077
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