MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0829

ACUS11 KWNS 182027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182026
NDZ000-MTZ000-182130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ND.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 182026Z - 182130Z

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS
PORTIONS NWRN...W-CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL ND...AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE DESCRIBED BELOW. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AND LOW-DBZ REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATES COLD
FRONT FROM NERN CORNER ND SWWD NEAR DVL...NWWD THROUGH INFLECTION
POINT OVER NRN/CENTRAL BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WWD TO WEAK SFC LOW
BETWEEN ISN-YEN...THEN NWWD TO PRIMARY SFC LOW OVER S-CENTRAL SASK.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FRONT SHOULD DRIFT SWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL ND
AS MAIN LOW SHIFTS/CONSOLIDATES SEWD TO W-CENTRAL ND. TWO SFC MOIST
AXES ARE EVIDENT...ONE PARALLEL TO AND JUST N OF FRONT FROM SERN
SASK TO N-CENTRAL ND...MERGING WITH ANOTHER THAT EXTENDS FROM
N-CENTRAL ND SWWD ACROSS DIK-BHK AREA. CONSIDERABLE MIXING/DRYING
HAS OCCURRED PAST 1-2 HOURS AROUND ISN...BETWEEN THOSE AXES. THIS
CONCENTRATES THETAE GRADIENT ALONG NWRN PORTION FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED.
ACCORDINGLY...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED TCU AND INTERMITTENT
GLACIATED TOWERS OVER BURKE/NRN MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...AS WELL AS
SEPARATE AREA OF TOWERS S OF MO RIVER OVER MCKENZIE COUNTY.

ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN EITHER AREA SHOULD MOVE EWD TO SEWD
INTO FAVORABLE MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S
F...THOUGH MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE INVOF FRONT.
CONTINUED HEATING WILL DEEPEN MIXED LAYER...BOOST MLCAPES AS HIGH AS
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ALONG FRONT...AND ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL/GUSTS TO REACH SFC FROM ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. BACKED
NEAR-FRONTAL SFC WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO 0-3 KM SRH 150-250 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KT.

.EDWARDS.. 05/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

46810388 47610320 48220327 48960408 49010404 48950060
48759799 47869775 47119818 47219964 46470248

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