DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020532
SWODY2
SPC AC 020530

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS COOLING
ALOFT AND STRONGER FLOW SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN
TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY S OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
INCREASING FORCING WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NEB AND IA.

...NEB INTO IA...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NERN NEB...ERN SD AND MN...IN A ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION ATOP THE SURFACE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BOTH INCREASE. MODELS INDICATE
AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BY 00Z ENHANCING
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR...AS WELL AS
LOW LEVEL VEERING FOR SUPERCELLS...AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT...THEN PERHAPS AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS
CELLS MERGE INTO AN MCS.

DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. GIVEN A NEWD CELL MOTION...THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT CORRIDOR INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES AS
STORMS MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

..JEWELL.. 10/02/2013

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