DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021726
SWODY2
SPC AC 021724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG AND REACH THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO SRN ROCKIES BY FRI MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE...A TRIPLE-POINT CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED INVOF
N-CNTRL KS ON THU AFTERNOON. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
NEWD INTO SRN MN WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM LATE D1/EARLY D2
CONVECTION S OF THE FRONT IN IA. A DRYLINE WILL BE ANCHORED S/SWWD
ACROSS WRN OK/TX.

...MID-MO VALLEY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU
WITHIN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME NE OF A SWLY LLJ OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...AMPLE SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A RICHLY MOIST WRN GULF AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS.
MODERATE TO STRONG SWLYS BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL MAINTAIN A CAPPING
INVERSION WITH ADVECTION OF AN EML PLUME. THIS SHOULD YIELD MODERATE
TO STRONG POTENTIAL BUOYANCY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE REACHING
2000-3000 J/KG.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEGREE OF STORM COVERAGE INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX
EJECTING ACROSS SERN CO TO NRN KS. THIS MAY YIELD ISOLATED STORMS
FORMING INVOF ERN NEB...WHERE WIND PROFILES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. ADDITIONAL
STORMS SHOULD FORM WITH ERN EXTENT INTO IA AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES
DURING THE EVENING. FRONTAL ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY QUICK UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS WITH A PREDOMINANT MIXED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK.
FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE...A DISCRETE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WILL
EXIST...BUT NEBULOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CAPPING CONCERNS RENDER
LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

..GRAMS.. 10/02/2013

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