MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1921

ACUS11 KWNS 021959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021959
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-022100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SWRN MN SWD INTO CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021959Z - 022100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME...WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. WITH THE THREAT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...AS A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- VISIBLE ATTM IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE ERN NEB
VICINITY -- CONTINUES SHIFTING SLOWLY NEWD. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE
A BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS.

STORMS ACROSS NERN SD AND ADJACENT SERN ND/WRN MN REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED...BUT HAVE BECOME MORE NEARLY SURFACE BASED SWD INTO NERN
NEB. OVERALL HOWEVER...SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATION REMAINS ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CELLS -- AND WITH TIME THE FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS. THUS...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW-END AND RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 10/02/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 46249577 45589492 43749576 41769696 40749897 41039990
41679981 43449825 45239811 45959688 46249577

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