MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 030208
FFGMPD
NEZ000-030807-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0266
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1007 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL NE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 030207Z - 030807Z

SUMMARY...A GROWING AREA OF BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3" AN HOUR SHOULD
PRODUCE REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NE IS COMBINING WITH LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF
30+ KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG, PER RECENT VAD WIND
PROFILES AND 12Z ARW GUIDANCE, TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF GROWING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.5 INCHES IN THE AREA ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY
OCTOBER. RADAR ESTIMATES ARE 2-3" AN HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS PICKING UP 5-10 INCHES ALREADY
PER RADAR ESTIMATES FROM NSSL AND PURELY DERIVED FROM RADAR
IMAGERY.

THE 23Z RAP INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, NOT FALLING OFF UNTIL AROUND 08Z, WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE BACKBUILDING PROCESS FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL
HOURS. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH 09Z PER THE 18Z GFS GUIDANCE. RECENT MOTION OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE 23Z HRRR SHOWS
STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGION
UNTIL 08Z AS WELL. AS SUCH, BELIEVE FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN
THIS REGION THROUGH 08Z.

ROTH

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON 41349978 41729814 41369719 40539832 40500021 41349978

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