DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEB...IA...SRN
MN...WRN WI...AND ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE E OF A CNTRL PLAINS
DRYLINE AND S OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL LIE FROM NERN NEB
INTO SRN MN AND CNTRL WI. LOW PRESSURE OVER KS/NEB WILL TRAVEL NEWD
ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL ALSO BE THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO TIMING OF THIS
TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...THE AREA FROM ERN NEBRASKA INTO IA...SRN MN...AND WRN WI
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WHETHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

...ERN NEB/SD INTO IA...SRN MN...WRN WI...
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER SERN NEB INTO
IA DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOW TRACK ALONG THE STATIONARY/WARM
FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB...NRN IA...AND SRN MN. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW
TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ACROSS WI AS WELL...PERHAPS AS A LINE.

...ERN KS...OK...WRN MO...
A SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW. MODELS DIFFER AS TO LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE FASTER
SOLUTION IS GENERALLY PREFERRED WHICH WOULD BRING IT INTO NWRN
TX...WRN OK AND NERN KS BY 00Z. STRONG FORCING ON THIS FRONT AND
COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE. GIVEN THE FAST MOTION OF
THE FRONT...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN AT
LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE
WITH EARLY ACTIVITY WHICH COULD EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS
BEFORE GETTING UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT.

..JEWELL.. 10/02/2013

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