SWODY1
SPC AC 260039
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
..SERN LA/SRN MS/SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL TX. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT...REACHING ERN OK/WRN AR BY 12Z MONDAY.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER NERN LA WILL TRACK NNEWD REACHING WRN TN...WHILE THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS MS/SERN LA AND EXTENDS SWD ALONG THE MS/
AL BORDER INTO THE GULF BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING
INLAND N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LIMIT NWD INTRUSION OF WARM SECTOR.
THUS...THE WARM FRONT WHICH ALREADY EXTENDED INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN MS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD INTO PARTS OF SWRN AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE TONIGHT.
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO BACK TO SSWLY ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH WINDS ALSO
STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NEWD AND UNDERGOES
SOME DEEPENING. DEEP LAYER FORCING SPREADING EWD WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK INLAND FROM THE
COAST...NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS/SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS/BOWING STRUCTURES
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING SOME WIND THREAT.
MEANWHILE...EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL SRH VALUES AND GREATER INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM SERN MS/LA EWD TO SWRN AL/FL PANHANDLE
ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
.PETERS.. 11/26/2007
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