MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2163

ACUS11 KWNS 251537
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251536
LAZ000-251800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL AND SERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251536Z - 251800Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER S CNTRL AND
SERN LA...GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF AN I-10 TO I-12 CORRIDOR. TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE CNTRL THROUGH NWRN
GULF COAST AND INTO EXTREME SERN LA TO A SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE
COAST OF SWRN LA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE
WRN GULF. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER LA TODAY WITHIN
ZONE OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX ROTATING NEWD AROUND UPPER LOW OVER TX. A
40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WARM FRONT MOVING FARTHER INLAND...WITH THE MOIST WARM SECTOR
ADVANCING TO NEAR THE I-10 TO I-12 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS...BUT THE NWD ADVECTION OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG OVER SERN LA. STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR
ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP SHEAR ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS WELL AS BOWING STRUCTURES.

.DIAL.. 11/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

29788954 29109055 29509134 29599263 30059250 30369028

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