SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260357
FLZ000-ALZ000-260500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 260357Z - 260500Z
THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED... TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
OVERNIGHT.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...A ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING A
STORM CLUSTER ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREAS...NOW EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ACTIVITY APPEARS MOSTLY ROOTED ABOVE A WEAKLY
STABLE OR NEUTRAL SURFACE BASED LAYER...WHICH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST REMAINS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET DEEP INLAND OF THE COASTAL
WATERS.
GIVEN A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF 15 KT OR
SO...WITHIN A NEAR SATURATED LOW/MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS SEEMS LOW. AND...THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE WITH CAPE OVER INLAND AREAS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 500
J/KG. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...AND SIZABLE...CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 30+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW...PROVIDES AT
LEAST SOME RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE THREAT APPEARS CONFINED MOSTLY TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...AND
LOW...THROUGH THE 06-08Z TIME FRAME...AS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE AND
PRECEDING ISOLATED CELLS SPREAD EAST OF MOBILE BAY THROUGH THE
PENSACOLA AREA. BUT...POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT IF
POSITIVELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER FINALLY SPREADS INLAND WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES INTO AREAS
NEAR/NORTH OF PANAMA CITY.
.KERR.. 11/26/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
31218773 31428656 31268585 30898512 30148496 29618557
29808633 29968697 29988746 30368795
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