DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250550
SWODY1
SPC AC 250548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MO INTO SRN IL...SWRN
IND AND WRN KY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY
TUE MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE EWD WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW REGIME S OF
THE LARGER ERN CANADIAN TROUGH. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH LIFT ENHANCED BY A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. TO THE
W...GENERALLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE PLAINS...WITH A
WEAK UPPER LOW AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. AS A
RESULT OF THIS FLOW REGIME...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES.

AT THE SURFACE...SLY FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS
VALLEY. A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WRN OK INTO SERN KS INTO ERN
MO...MERGING WITH A PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN IL AND
IND. PERIODS OF STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH SOME PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

...SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY...
MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM IL EWD INTO SRN IND AND
KY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WITH THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD BE
MARGINAL. LATER IN THE DAY...HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG AND S OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY THE EARLIER STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD EXIST ROUGHLY FROM ERN/SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY. WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING...HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL STORMS. COOL MID TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES...HEATING...AND
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SETS UP.

...WRN OK INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT HEATING SHOULD REMOVE MOST CIN...WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F.
ALTHOUGH LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME INCREASE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS MAY HELP
ORGANIZE A FEW LONGER LIVED STORM CLUSTERS. BOTH HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PRODUCING LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STORMS
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY 06Z.

..JEWELL.. 09/25/2012

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