DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250551
SWODY2
SPC AC 250550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND...THE FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
U.S. IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CORRESPONDING TO
THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN...A RELATIVELY NONDESCRIPT SURFACE EVOLUTION
IS FORECAST...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT --
STRETCHING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WWD INTO KS -- WILL FOCUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...SRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AREA...
WHILE VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL
EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. INVOF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR IN THIS AREA SHOULD GENERALLY
PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL -- SUPPORTIVE OF 5% SEVERE RISK AREA --
APPEARS TO EXIST FROM PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT
SRN KS/NRN OK EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. SLIGHTLY
GREATER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT ACROSS THIS
REGION -- WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE...A FEW
LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON -- A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS. THIS THREAT MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD WANE WITH TIME WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

..GOSS.. 09/25/2012

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