ACUS48 KWNS 250853
SWOD48
SPC AC 250852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE LATEST RUNS...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS DAY 4 WITH THE HANDLING OF A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE ADJACENT NERN CONUS.
ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS OCCUR WITH TIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY AFFECTS CONFIDENCE LEVELS
REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
HAVING SAID THAT...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE U.S. --
ASIDE FROM THE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
-- IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK...WITH RIDGING PREVAILING ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS QUITE LOW AT
THIS TIME THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 09/25/2012
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