SWOD48
SPC AC 031004
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CST WED MAR 03 2010
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING
AN UPPER-LEVEL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY/DAY 5. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A SRN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE
ADEQUATE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF TX WHERE GREATER MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT IN THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY/DAY 6 AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY/DAY 7...CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF PLACES THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER IOWA WITH A
BROAD MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES. FOR THIS SCENARIO...THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD
BE ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE GULF COAST STATES BUT THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. AT THIS POINT...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 03/03/2010
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