Friday, October 22, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1966

ACUS11 KWNS 230032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230032
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-230230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL OK...NRN TX...SERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 702...

VALID 230032Z - 230230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 702 CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 702 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED WITH
A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT. A SECONDARY OF THREAT MAY BE DEVELOPING
FROM NERN OK INTO SERN KS.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS PERSIST ACROSS N TX AS OF 00Z...BUT HAVE
SHOWN LITTLE SIGN OF BEING SEVERE. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS N TX AND OK...BENEATH A SWLY FLOW
REGIME AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SERN NM/FAR W
TX. THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS A FAVORABLE SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE
ALONG WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...MOSTLY CONTAINED IN THE LOWEST 500 M. HOWEVER...THERE IS
LITTLE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

FARTHER N INTO NERN OK/SERN KS...STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING WHERE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXISTS NEAR THE 850 MB
LLJ CORE. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS...A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW.

..JEWELL.. 10/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33760012 33839994 33839955 33999922 34539863 37269659
37819604 37919495 37529458 36759455 35019558 33489666
32479740 32409828 32379910 32509958 32759984 33760012

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