SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221503
OKZ000-TXZ000-221700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221503Z - 221700Z
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY. THE NEED
FOR A WW IS UNCERTAIN...AS THE LONGEVITY OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT IS
STILL IN QUESTION...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE APPEARS LIKELY TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BUT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE
MAY MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... THROUGH
AT LEAST THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME. THIS MAY COINCIDE WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
HEATING AND NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOWER/MID SURFACE DEW
POINTS...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND
SUBSIDENCE. NEAR AND BENEATH 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...AND
A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS...STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
..KERR.. 10/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34469857 34909800 34779662 33759651 33489736 33649856
34469857
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