SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221734
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-221900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN CO...WRN KS...SW CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221734Z - 221900Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...INCLUDING A
VIGOROUS CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER...PIVOTING AROUND ITS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERY...THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING
STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA...TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF GOODLAND.
STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST...INCREASE AND INTENSIFY WHILE
SPREADING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 20-22Z...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO BECOMES
AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION IS WEAK...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY MAY
SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT HAIL POTENTIAL IN STRONGER
CELLS...SOME OF WHICH COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.
..KERR.. 10/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 38540241 40010228 40810118 40230009 39039973 37979994
37190001 37040091 37220123 37860144 38540241
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