SWODY1
SPC AC 231633
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COASTAL AREA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NWRN GULF THROUGH SERN LA WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS NWWD THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY TO A SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL KS. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM S FL NWWD THROUGH SE LA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD
FRONT. WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH SE LA INTO THE CNTRL GULF AND S FL.
HOWEVER...NWD RETREAT OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO ENELY OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTING FROM GRADIENT BETWEEN NERN U.S. CP
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WEAK LOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF.
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTRL GULF WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NWD LATER TONIGHT AS AN IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF MAY MOVE NWD AND APPROACH THE CNTRL
GULF COASTAL AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR LATE
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE
WARM FRONT WHERE LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE THE
SURFACE LAYER AS IT MOVES ONSHORE WHICH IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..DIAL/SMITH.. 10/23/2008
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