SWODY1
SPC AC 231235
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL GULF CST REGION...
CDFNT THAT SURGED E OF THE MS DELTA AND CNTRL LA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL STALL TODAY IN WAKE OF THE MID-LVL IMPULSE EJECTING NWD INTO
THE MID-MS VLY. 12Z MESOANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WAS BECOMING SQUEEZED BY THE APCH OF COLDER AIR FROM THE W
AND THE ELY TRANSPORT OF LWR THETA-E AIR MASS EMANATING FROM THE
SERN ATLC RIDGE. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO APPRECIABLE CHANGE AS THE LOW-LVL FLOW MAINTAINS AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OWING TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN THE CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO.
OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVR THE PLNS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EWD
TODAY...AWAITING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE FROM THE HIPLNS TO
THE LWR MS VLY LATER TONIGHT. AS IT APCHS THE REGION...THERE WILL
BE A LOW PROBABILITY THAT SCTD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR ERN
LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE OCEANIC INSTABILITY
RESERVOIR. MOST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE
SFC...BUT IF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAN MANAGE TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST...THERE WILL BE A SMALL RISK FOR A DMGG WIND
GUST/BRIEF TORNADO.
..RACY/BOTHWELL.. 10/23/2008
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