SWODY1
SPC AC 240036
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR
WESTERLIES...BUT AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE PROGRESSES AROUND ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...THE CIRCULATION CENTER MAY FINALLY BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/
OZARK PLATEAU REGION TONIGHT. FURTHER EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION MAY COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE
EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPSTREAM POLAR JET STREAK NOSES EAST OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE COUPLING OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND A JET STREAK WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM....NEAR
THE GULF COAST. BUT...STRONGER UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED WELL INLAND OF THE GULF COAST.
THUS...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WAVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL/
EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN WEAK. WITH THE LARGE EASTERN
STATES SURFACE RIDGE ONLY PROGGED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF
THE COASTAL WATERS SEEMS UNLIKELY TONIGHT...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LOW.
HOWEVER...ABOVE THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN STATES RIDGE...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK COOLING ALOFT SPREADS EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LATEST MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY WELL BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.
..KERR.. 10/24/2008
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