SWODY3
SPC AC 010725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STRONG JET STREAK STILL DIGGING ON THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EVOLVING CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LEAD SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE...IMPACTING THE CASCADES EARLY IN THE PERIOD... WILL
RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THURSDAY. MUCH OF
THE NATION WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGER HIGH LEVEL
WESTERLIES...AND CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE SOMEWHAT
ENHANCED BY AN IMPULSE DIGGING WITHIN A PREVAILING BROADER SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.
...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION/SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...MODELS INDICATE THAT NORTHWESTERLY
500 MB WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN UP TO 30-35 KTS ACROSS KANSAS INTO
OKLAHOMA DURING THIS PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM
EARLY DAY CONVECTION PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY...AND A RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT...STEEP LAPSE RATES ON THE NOSE
OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ...PARTICULARLY IF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THIS
OCCURS...STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN A ZONE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
..KERR.. 09/01/2009
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