SWODY2
SPC AC 011710
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL SOON TOP WRN U.S. RIDGE AND DIG SEWD INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS STRENGTHING NWLY FLOW/SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION.
ONE THING SEEMS APPARENT...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG N-S AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE THREAT OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS INVOF UPPER LOW...SWD INTO WRN KS...EPISODIC ELEVATED
THUNDER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY AND LATE IN THE PERIOD THROUGH
ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...MUCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WHERE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION MAY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.
...SWRN DESERT REGION...
HURRICANE JIMENA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL BAJA
PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD FORCE A SURGE OF
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN MEXICAN DESERTS INTO SRN
AZ/CA. PWAT VALUES SHOULD EASILY RISE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE
MEXICAN BORDER WHICH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
THICKER CLOUDINESS. STRONG HEATING NEAR THIS TRANSITION SHOULD
ENHANCE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES/GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL BENEATH
STRONGER/HEAVIER RAIN CORES.
..DARROW.. 09/01/2009
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