SWODY1
SPC AC 151939
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX...
..SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX...
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL GRADUALLY WANE ACROSS SERN TX AS UPPER
SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER THIS
EVENING. ASSOCIATED BROAD ZONE OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS SERN TX IN
PROXIMITY TO MUCH HIGHER INSTABILITY WITHIN A ZONE OF NEGLIGIBLE
INHIBITION. ADDITIONALLY...WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW IS SURGING SWD
ACROSS THIS REGION ARCING FROM SABINE COUNTY...MONTGOMERY
COUNTY...WWD INTO WILLIAMSON COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY
FROM THE HOUSTON METRO AREA EWD. ANOTHER POTENTIAL REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY SWWD
TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. SUBSTANTIALLY MORE HEATING WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THIS WEAKLY CONVERGENT WIND SHIFT BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THIS
REGION TO WARRANT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL OR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.
..ERN NEB/IA...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE YET TO BREAK UP BENEATH UPPER LOW LIFTING
NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HINDERED SFC
HEATING AND REDUCED AN ALREADY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT.
ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION IT
APPEARS THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL IS QUITE LOW.
.DARROW.. 10/15/2007
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